Starbucks Q1 Preview: Will 'Green Apron' Investments Drive Profits Or Just Add Cost Risks? Jefferies Sees 'Downside' Ahead

Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ:SBUX) is set to report its first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on Jan. 28, facing a critical test of CEO Brian Niccol's “Back to Starbucks” strategy. While management points to recovering U.S. traffic, key analysts warn that the operational costs required to achieve that growth may trigger a stock correction.

Consensus Vs. The ‘Unsupported Rally’

Wall Street expects Starbucks to report earnings per share (EPS) of $0.58, a significant decline from the $0.69 reported in the same quarter last year, despite a projected revenue increase to $9.64 billion, according to Benzinga.

Amid these muted expectations, Jefferies analyst Andy Barish has reiterated an “Underperform” rating with a $75 price target, labeling the stock's recent performance an “unsupported rally.”

According to an X post shared by Wall St Engine, Jefferies warns that the upcoming earnings and the subsequent Investor Day on Jan. 29 could “disappoint & overpromise,” potentially leading to downside throughout fiscal 2026.

Jefferies Reiterates $SBUX to Underperform, PT $75Analyst comments: "Reiterating our Underperform rating following what we view as an unsupported rally in the stock ahead of F1Q results/Analyst Day Jan. 28/29, which we think could disappoint & overpromise, leading to downside…

— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) January ...