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Government Shutdown Odds Rise From 10% To 79%: Prediction Markets Confirm Jeremy Siegel's Warning Of A Sudden Closure Threat

A sudden disruption in Washington has sent government shutdown probabilities skyrocketing, validating Professor Jeremy Siegel's latest warning that a once "done deal" has unraveled into a genuine market threat.

The ‘Monkey Wrench’ In Washington

In his weekly commentary released Monday, Wharton Professor Siegel warned that Democrats have "thrown a monkey wrench" into budget negotiations, threatening a new government shutdown.

While markets had previously priced this risk as negligible, sentiment has shifted violently in a matter of days.

Siegel noted that prediction markets swung from implying a less than 10% chance of a shutdown to over 70%. Real-time data from major prediction platforms confirms this dramatic repricing.

Polymarket betting pools indicate an odds of a shutdown reaching 79%, while Kalshi data reflects a similar surge, with probabilities rising sharply to nearly 77% just days before the deadline.

Market Implications: Noise Vs. Fundamentals

Siegel cautions that this renewed volatility "should impede the upward movement in the market" in the near term.

The sudden spike in uncertainty ...