The 'Brazil Trade' Is Back — Why Analysts See More Upside Ahead

Brazilian equities are roaring back to life in early 2026, riding a powerful mix of surging commodity prices, a weakening U.S. dollar and a broad rotation into emerging markets

The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (NYSE:EWZ) is up roughly 20% month-to-date, sharply outperforming the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), which has gained just under 3% over the same period.

That 17-percentage-point gap marks EWZ's strongest one-month outperformance versus U.S. equities in more than four years.

According to CountryETFTracker data, EWZ currently ranks as the third best performing U.S.‑listed country ETF over the past month, trailing only the iShares MSCI Peru and Global Exposure ETF (NYSE:EPU), which is up 26%, and the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (NYSE:EWY).

The EWZ/SPY relative spread has now broken above its longer‑term downtrend, signaling a potential technical breakout that could draw more money into Brazilian equities after decades of underperformance.

Notably, during the last major commodity supercycle—from October 2002 to May 2008—Brazilian equities outpaced the S&P 500 by over 1,000%, underscoring their historical leverage to resource-driven bull markets.

Why Experts Think Brazilian Equities Have Further To Run

On Tuesday, ...